StimulusGate
May 13, 2010
This graph was in the Budget Papers on Tuesday night. It compares the size of stimulus packages against growth projections made by the International Monetary Fund.
Treasury claims the graph demonstrates the bigger the stimulus, the bigger the difference between what the IMF predicted would happen and what actually happened (ie the bigger the stimulus the bigger the recovery).
But the IPA’s Professor Sinclair Davidson asked himself – why are there are only 11 countries in the graph??? The original IMF document Treasury got the data from was a list of all the countries in the G20. (There’s 19 countries in the G20 plus the European Union.)
Sinclair plotted all 19 countries. And guess what? THERE’S NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE between the size of stimulus packages and economic recovery. Sinclair explains it here.
Why did Treasury include China in their graph but not Russia? or Brazil but not Mexico? … mmm … have Treasury officials learned statistics from the folks from the University of East Anglia?
Last Friday the IPA released the results of a poll of 1000 Australians we commissioned on climate change. Here’s the results:
- 35% of Australians believe that “The world is warming and man’s emissions are to blame”
- 26% believe that “The variation in global temperature is just part of the natural cycle of nature.”
- 38% agreed with the statement that “There is conflicting evidence and I’m not sure what the truth is.”
Full details of the poll are here.
If you don’t already think the Resources Super-Profits Tax is terrible, read these three articles from the last few days by Judith Sloan in Catallaxy, Michael Pascoe in The Age, and Paul Murray in The West Australian.
If you missed seeing Kevin Rudd getting very grumpy indeed on The 7.30 Report last night – here it is (the IPA’s Tim Wilson has this to say about it). But it doesn’t compare to this classic.
And if you’re in the mood for an interesting piece on what American presidents read there’s this from the Washington Post last month. Talking of books the IPA and Connor Court Press are hosting the launch of new book by Cardinal George Pell Test Everything: Hold Fast to What is Good in Melbourne on Monday night – details here.
Here’s what the IPA staff have been talking about this week: Julie Novak in The Australian on the growth of government bureaucracy. Chris Berg in The Drum on the politics of terrorism and in the The Spectator on Australia’s cultural identity. Tim Wilson in the Canberra Times on grocery protectionism. And Tom Switzer in The Age on the real Kevin Rudd.
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